Races · house · 2026 · Virginia

house · open seat

Virginia house

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Likely DD +9.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsLast poll 131d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
77% Cooney (D)
23% (R)
Win probability
J.P. Cooney77% (D)
Republican23% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +9.3
80% CIR+6.8 → D+25.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +9.3 · 80% CI R+6.8 → D+25.4 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 92¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 77% D · market gap 19pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 96%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.8 (10th pctile) to D+25.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 77% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 77%, market says 96% — 19pp gap.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +9.3

80% CI: R +6.8 → D +25.4 · win prob 77%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +7.1

80% CI D +2.7 → D +13.4

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +2.1

80% CI R +7.0 → D +2.7

CV MAE 3.77

consensusMarket-implied

D +13.6

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 92¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the VA-07 House seat?”	89¢	11¢	+1¢	—	-4
Kalshi “VA-07 House winner?”	96¢	5¢	+5¢	$0K	+4

Polymarket sits 3¢ below consensus.

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

DJ.P. Cooney0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-23

J.P. CooneyOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$543.5K

Disburse

$42.7K

Cash on hand

$500.9K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$188.2K

D side

$188.2K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

—

For / against split

For Vindman $180.7K

Against Anderson $7.5K

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D1

Likely D3

Cook Political Report

Likely D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Likely D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 4, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 3, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-23

Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks