Democratic primary · August 4, 2026
Virginia house Democratic primary
Field of 6 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
98
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (29.0pp).
Forecast CI width97
29.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution97 / 100
Measured29.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Dan HelmerDaniel Isaac Helmer is an American politician. He is a member of the Democratic Party. In 2018, he lost the Democratic primary for Virginia'…
2J.P. CooneyThe J.P. Rooneys (or formally the James P. Rooneys ) were an independent semi-professional American football team, based in Pittsburgh, Penn…
3Elizabeth GuzmánChallenger
4Saddam SalimSaddam Azlan Salim is an American Democratic politician in Virginia. He was born in Bangladesh. He was elected to the Virginia Senate in the…
5Adele McClureAdele Y. McClure is an American politician serving as a member of the Virginia House of Delegates from the 2nd district since 2024. A Democr…
6Alfonso LopezChallenger
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Cooney | Guzmán | Helmer | McClure | Lopez | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | Change Research | 360 · LV | 5 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +9 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yetDan Helmer · 3
DDan Helmer3 endorsers
Most notable · Ralph Northam · former governor of Virginia (2018–2022)
Elected officials3
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Ralph Northam · former governor of Virginia (2018–2022)
- Eugene Vindman · VA-7 (2025–present)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
DJ.P. Cooney0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DElizabeth Guzmán0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAdele McClure0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAlfonso Lopez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSaddam Salim0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-01-23Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-23
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks