Races · house · 2026 · Utah
house · open seat
Steve Merrill vs Celeste Maloy
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.0 (10th pctile) to R+7.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.9
80% CI: R +40.0 → R +7.8 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the UT-03 House seat?” | 7¢ | 94¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 21 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet21
Endorsements tracked
Steve Merrill0 · 0%
Celeste Maloy21 · 100%
Total21
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RCeleste Maloy21 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials21
Federal 3State 17Local 0
Elected officials · 21
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Evan Vickers · majority leader of the Utah Senate (2019–present) from the 28th district (2013–present)
- David Hinkins · state senator from the 26th district (2009–present)
- Derrin Owens · state senator from the 27th district (2021–present)
- Don Ipson · state senator from the 29th district (2016–present)
- Keven Stratton · state senator from the 24th district (2025–present)
- Mike McKell · state senator from the 25th district (2021–present)
- Scott Sandall · state senator from the 1st district (2019–present)
- Todd Weiler · state senator from the 8th district (2012–present)
- Anthony Loubet · state representative from the 27th district (2023–present)
- Bridger Bolinder · state representative from the 29th district (2023–present)
- Burgess Owens · UT-04
- Carl Albrecht · state representative from the 70th district (2017–present)
- Colin Jack · state representative from the 73rd district (2022–present)
- Doug Welton · state representative from the 65th district (2021–present)
- Paul Cutler · state representative from the 18th district (2023–present)
- R. Neil Walter · state representative from the 74th district (2023–present)
- Rex Shipp · state representative from the 71st district (2019–present)
- Steven Lund · former state representative from the 21st district (2021–2024)
- Stuart Adams · president of the Utah Senate (2019–present) from the 7th district (2009–present)
- Walt Brooks · state representative from the 75th district (2016–present)
DSteve Merrill0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-24Celeste MaloyH4UT02296 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$256.1K
Debts
$143.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Steve Merrill
Receipts
$21.1K
Disburse
$20.3K
Cash on hand
$760.67
Debts
$13.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.6M
D side
$300.0K · 19%
R side
$1.3M · 81%
Top spender
DEFENDING OUR VALUE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC other · boosts R
| R | $998.7K | 64% | for Celeste Maloy |
| Keeping America Strong PAC other · boosts D
| D | $300.0K | 19% | against Celeste Maloy |
| AMERICAN CONSERVATION COALITION PAC (ACC PAC) other · boosts R
| R | $232.1K | 15% | for Celeste Maloy |
| WFW ACTION FUND INC other · boosts R
| R | $37.7K | 2% | for Celeste Maloy |
| DEFENDING UTAH VALUES FEDERAL SUPER PAC other · boosts R
| R | $2.5K | 0% | for Celeste Maloy |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-24
Endorsements21 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks