Races · house · 2026 · Texas

house · open seat

Lizzie Fletcher vs Alexander Hale

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe DD +24.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
97% Fletcher (D)
3% Hale (R)
Win probability
Lizzie Fletcher97% (D)
Alexander Hale3% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +24.3
80% CID+8.2 → D+40.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +24.3 · 80% CI D+8.2 → D+40.4 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.2 (10th pctile) to D+40.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +24.3

80% CI: D +8.2 → D +40.4 · win prob 97%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +26.0

80% CI D +20.3 → D +37.6

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-07 House seat?”	94¢	7¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 12 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

11Fletcher · 92%
Hale · 8%1
Endorsements tracked
Lizzie Fletcher11 · 92%
Alexander Hale1 · 8%
Total12
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DLizzie Fletcher11 endorsers

Most notable · AFL-CIO · FL-CIO

Organizations11

RAlexander Hale1 endorser

Most notable · Houston Chronicle

Newspapers1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Lizzie FletcherOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$1.2M

Disburse

$795.4K

Cash on hand

$1.8M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Alexander HaleOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$61.8K

Disburse

$55.7K

Cash on hand

$6.0K

Debts

$3.6K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks