Races · house · 2026 · Texas

house · open seat

Danny Minton vs Jake Ellzey

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe RR +27.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Minton (D)
99% Ellzey (R)
Win probability
Danny Minton1% (D)
Jake Ellzey99% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +27.3
80% CIR+43.4 → R+11.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +27.3 · 80% CI R+43.4 → R+11.3 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 6¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.4 (10th pctile) to R+11.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +27.3

80% CI: R +43.4 → R +11.3 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +34.1

80% CI R +38.9 → R +28.5

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +14.9

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 6¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-06 House seat?”	6¢	93¢	-3¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 4 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Ellzey · 100%4
Endorsements tracked
Danny Minton0 · 0%
Jake Ellzey4 · 100%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RJake Ellzey4 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials2

Federal 1State 1Local 0

Organizations2

DDanny Minton0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11

Jake EllzeyH8TX06266 ↗

Receipts

$3.7M

Disburse

$2.7M

Cash on hand

$2.1M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Danny MintonOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$25.1K

Disburse

$15.8K

Cash on hand

$9.4K

Debts

$3.1K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$34.3K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$34.3K · 100%

Top spender

PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.

For / against split

For Ellzey $34.3K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PATRIOTIC FUND, INC.	R	$34.3K	100%	for Jake Ellzey
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	R	$53.71	0%	for Jake Ellzey

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.