Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Johnny Garcia vs Carlos De La Cruz
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 91% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+19) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.5 (10th pctile) to D+32.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 91% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.6
80% CI: D +0.5 → D +32.7 · win prob 91%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +38.8
80% CI D +34.5 → D +43.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +0.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 48¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?” | 48¢ | 53¢ | +3¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 29 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet16
13
Endorsements tracked
Johnny Garcia16 · 55%
Carlos De La Cruz13 · 45%
Total29
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJohnny Garcia16 endorsers
Most notable · Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present) and chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus
Elected officials9
Federal 7State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present) and chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Brad Schneider · IL-10 (2017–present)
- Gina Hinojosa · HD-49 (2017–present) and Democratic nominee for the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election
- James Talarico · HD-50 (2023–present) and Democratic nominee for the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
- Joaquin Castro · TX-20 (2013–present)
- Lloyd Doggett · TX-37 (2023–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Pete Buttigieg · U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
- Blue Dog PAC
- CHC BOLD PAC
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Democratic Majority for Israel
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Houston Chronicle
- San Antonio Express-News
RCarlos De La Cruz13 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials13
Federal 12State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 13
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN–08 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Brandon Gill · TX-26 (2025–present)
- Derrick Van Orden · WI-03 (2023–present)
- Jodey Arrington · TX-19 (2017–present)
- John McGuire · VA-05 (2025–present)
- Monica De La Cruz · TX-15 (2023–present) (candidate's sister)
- Randy Weber · TX-14 (2013–present)
- Rich McCormick · GA-07 (2023–present)
- Rudy Yakym · IN-02 (2022–present)
- Markwayne Mullin · Oklahoma (2023-2026)
- Ryan Zinke · MT-01, (2023–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-01Johnny GarciaH6TX35095 ↗
Receipts
$328.3K
Disburse
$267.0K
Cash on hand
$61.3K
Debts
$7.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Carlos De La CruzH6TX35087 ↗
Receipts
$671.4K
Disburse
$538.6K
Cash on hand
$132.9K
Debts
$176.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.0M
D side
$2.6M · 53%
R side
$2.4M · 47%
Top spender
DEFENDING OUR VALUE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.5M | 30% | for Carlos De La Cruz |
| Project 218 other · boosts D
| D | $1.4M | 28% | for Johnny Garcia |
| BDA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $775.0K | 16% | for Johnny Garcia |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $616.4K | 12% | for Carlos De La Cruz |
| SD 2026 other · boosts D
| D | $269.8K | 5% | for Johnny Garcia |
| Strong PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $243.3K | 5% | for Carlos De La Cruz |
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $163.8K | 3% | for Johnny Garcia |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-01
Endorsements32 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks