Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Justin Early vs John Carter
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 96% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.8 (10th pctile) to R+6.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.7
80% CI: R +38.8 → R +6.6 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-31 House seat?” | 14¢ | 87¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
3
Endorsements tracked
Justin Early1 · 25%
John Carter3 · 75%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJohn Carter3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
DJustin Early1 endorser
Most notable · AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11John CarterH2TX31044 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$246.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Justin Early
Receipts
$89.3K
Disburse
$81.6K
Cash on hand
$7.7K
Debts
$56.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$55.1K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$55.1K · 100%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVE FUTURE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVE FUTURE FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $55.0K | 100% | for John Carter |
| TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $53.71 | 0% | for John Carter |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.18
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.05 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.18
Week-over-weekshift +0.05 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 36%
Neutral 45%
R 18%
55% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets36%
Neutral45%
R-leaning outlets18%
55% of outlets classified by editorial lean
F
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
P
Talarico and Paxton tied in latest Texas Senate poll
M
Tuesday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.30.26: Poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied in Texas
W
Texas Senate race is dead even, poll finds
M
Texas House Elections Committee Hearing - April 24, 2025 Poll Results (AUmej4oE60)
T
Texas Senate race 2026: latest polls for the record-breaking election
N
Texas 33rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Texas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
W
Ken Paxton pulls ahead of James Talarico in Texas Senate race in latest poll
I
Trump’s chosen Texas candidate tied with Democrat in poll shocker
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks