Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Tanya Lloyd vs Michael Cloud
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.6 (10th pctile) to R+9.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.5
80% CI: R +41.6 → R +9.4 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.1
80% CI R +38.9 → R +28.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.1
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-27 House seat?” | 14¢ | 86¢ | +2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet4
4
Endorsements tracked
Tanya Lloyd4 · 50%
Michael Cloud4 · 50%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMichael Cloud4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Austin American-Statesman
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Turning Point Action
DTanya Lloyd4 endorsers
Most notable · Austin American-Statesman
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Austin American-Statesman
- The Austin Chronicle
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
- Track AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-31Michael CloudH8TX27049 ↗
Receipts
$902.6K
Disburse
$759.6K
Cash on hand
$279.8K
Debts
$5.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tanya Lloyd
Receipts
$123.2K
Disburse
$117.2K
Cash on hand
$6.2K
Debts
$24.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$999.97
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$999.97 · 100%
Top spender
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $946.26 | 95% | for Michael Cloud |
| TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $53.71 | 5% | for Michael Cloud |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-31
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks