Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Texas house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.2 (10th pctile) to R+8.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.1
80% CI: R +40.2 → R +8.0 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.5
80% CI R +36.5 → R +19.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 12¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TX-02 House seat?” | 12¢ | 85¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet7
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Steve Toth7 · 100%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RSteve Toth7 endorsers
Most notable · Jim McIngvale · businessman
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Freedom Caucus Fund
- Gun Owners of America · Texas
- Texas Gun Rights
- Turning Point Action
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Nate Schatzline · state representative from the 93rd district (2023–present)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Jim McIngvale · businessman
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11Steve TothH6TX08175 ↗
Receipts
$698.3K
Disburse
$574.0K
Cash on hand
$124.3K
Debts
$13.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$520.2K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$520.2K · 100%
Top spender
ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHT…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $445.2K | 86% | for Steve Toth |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $50.0K | 10% | for Steve Toth |
| Turning Point PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $23.5K | 5% | for Steve Toth |
| Montgomery County First PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $720.7 | 0% | for Steve Toth |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements49 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks