Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Bobby Pulido vs Monica De La Cruz
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 77% R · market gap 31pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Tilt D (D win prob 54%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.6 (10th pctile) to D+6.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 77% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 23%, market says 54% — 31pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.5
80% CI: R +25.6 → D +6.6 · win prob 23%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +17.6
80% CI R +20.0 → R +13.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +3.9
80% CI R +8.8 → D +1.0
CV MAE 3.81
consensusMarket-implied
D +0.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 54¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 16 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 54% · polls 38%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Sep 11, 2025 · latest Public Policy Polling
Monica De La Cruz
VoteHub41.0%
VoteHub
Polling average41.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg41.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average41.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt below our average
Bobby Pulido
VoteHub38.0%
VoteHub
Polling average38.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg37.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average37.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Sep 11, 2025): Monica De La Cruz 41.0%, Bobby Pulido 38.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 533 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 38 · 41 |
Endorsements · 14 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet11
3
Endorsements tracked
Bobby Pulido11 · 79%
Monica De La Cruz3 · 21%
Total14
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DBobby Pulido11 endorsers
Most notable · Gina Hinojosa · state representative from the 49th district (2017–present) and Democratic nominee for governor of Texas in 2026
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Blue Dog PAC
- Bold PAC
- CHC BOLD PAC
- DCCC · Red to Blue (post-primary)
- Democratic Majority for Israel · PAC
- Latino Victory Fund
- WelcomePAC
Elected officials4
Federal 2State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Gina Hinojosa · state representative from the 49th district (2017–present) and Democratic nominee for governor of Texas in 2026
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present) (post-primary)
- James Talarico · state representative from the 50th district (2018–present) and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Texas in 2026
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
RMonica De La Cruz3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-04-29Bobby PulidoH6TX15246 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$403.0K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 4 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Monica De La Cruz
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.2M
D side
$1.2M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
BDA PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $997.8K | 83% | for Bobby Pulido |
| Latino Victory Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $82.5K | 7% | for Bobby Pulido |
| Project 218 super pac · boosts D
| D | $56.2K | 5% | for Bobby Pulido |
| WelcomePAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $30.0K | 3% | for Bobby Pulido |
| BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $14.9K | 1% | for Bobby Pulido |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
59 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles59
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.13 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift −0.13 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 19%
Neutral 76%
R 5%
24% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets19%
Neutral76%
R-leaning outlets5%
24% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
U.S. Supreme Court again enables Texas election law to go into effect
T
Bobby Pulido faces scrutiny over ex-bandmate in bid for Congress
D
Election denier Nate Schatzline to advise Abbott on Texas voting policy
S
Texas House candidate for Fort Worth area district posts racially coded meme
T
Rep. Nate Schatzline resigns from Texas House to lead “election integrity” policy in Gov. Abbott’s office
C
Q&A: Meet the Democratic candidates running for Texas House District 49 in May's runoff election
F
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
M
Tuesday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.30.26: Poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied in Texas
P
Talarico and Paxton tied in latest Texas Senate poll
W
Texas Senate race is dead even, poll finds
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-04-29
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks