Races · house · 2026 · Texas
house · open seat
Dax Alexander vs Nathaniel Moran
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+25) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+53.8 (10th pctile) to R+21.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +37.7
80% CI: R +53.8 → R +21.6 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +56.1
80% CI R +75.7 → R +39.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the TX-01 House seat?” | 7¢ | 93¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 49 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
48
Endorsements tracked
Dax Alexander1 · 2%
Nathaniel Moran48 · 98%
Total49
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RNathaniel Moran48 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Other25
Other · 25
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-08 (2015–present)
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Jake Ellzey · TX-06 (2021–present)
- Jasmine Crockett · TX-30 (2023–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Jodey Arrington · TX-19 (2017–present)
- Michael McCaul · TX-10 (2005–present)
- Amarillo · r, former Amarillo city councilor
- Austin American-Statesman
- Club for Growth
- Conservative Political Action Conference
- David McIntosh · former IN-02 (1995–2001)
- Larry Combest · former TX-19 (1985–2003)
- Latino Victory Fund
- Leading the Future
- Maggie's List
- Pete Sessions · TX-17 (1997–2019, 2021–present)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
- Track AIPAC
- Turning Point Action
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- U.S. Marine Corps · l health counselor and U.S. Marine Corps veteran
- WelcomePAC
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- AFL-CIO · FL-CIO
- AIPAC
- Blue Dog PAC
- Bold PAC
- CHC BOLD PAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel · PAC
- Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus
- Lubbock County · cretary of the Lubbock County Democratic Party
- Republican Jewish Coalition
Elected officials7
Federal 2State 4Local 1
Elected officials · 7
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Gina Hinojosa · state representative from the 49th district (2017–present) and Democratic nominee for governor of Texas in 2026
- Greg Abbott · governor of Texas (2015–present)
- Sarah Eckhardt · state senator from the 14th district (2020–present) ( running for comptroller of public accounts )
- James Talarico · state representative from the 50th district (2018–present) and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Texas in 2026
- Port Arthur · tie, former mayor of Port Arthur
Newspapers5
Newspapers · 5
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present) (post-primary)
- DCCC · Red to Blue (post-primary)
- Fort Worth Star-Telegram
- Houston Chronicle
- The Austin Chronicle
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Bobby Pulido · Tejano musician
- U.S. Army · organ-Aguilera, nonprofit executive director and U.S. Army veteran
DDax Alexander1 endorser
Most notable · Young Democrats · ung Democrats
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Young Democrats · ung Democrats
ISonia Canchola0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-11Nathaniel MoranH2TX01112 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$634.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dax Alexander
Receipts
$12.5K
Disburse
$10.9K
Cash on hand
$1.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$53.71
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$53.71 · 100%
Top spender
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $53.71 | 100% | for Nathaniel Moran |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-11
Endorsements49 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks