Races · house · 2026 · Tennessee
house · open seat
Tennessee house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+21) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+48.3 (10th pctile) to R+16.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +32.2
80% CI: R +48.3 → R +16.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +45.7
80% CI R +57.6 → R +32.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.1
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the TN-08 House seat?” | 14¢ | 87¢ | +2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
David Kustoff2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RDavid Kustoff2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Republican Jewish Coalition
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —David Kustoff
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$2.8M
Debts
$161.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks