Races · house · 2026 · South Carolina
house · open seat
Mac Deford vs Mark Smith
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 86% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.6 (10th pctile) to D+2.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 86% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement61
12.2pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution61 / 100
Measured12.2pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.4
80% CI: R +29.6 → D +2.6 · win prob 14%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +16.2
80% CI R +17.6 → R +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +3.9
80% CI R +8.4 → D +0.6
CV MAE 3.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +4.6
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 31¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 5 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 31% · polls 36%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?” | 31¢ | 70¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 645 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 36 · 39 |
Endorsements · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet5
Endorsements tracked
Mac Deford0 · 0%
Mark Smith5 · 100%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMark Smith5 endorsers
Most notable · Davey Hiott · majority leader of the South Carolina House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 4th district (2004–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Davey Hiott · majority leader of the South Carolina House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 4th district (2004–present)
- Murrell Smith · speaker of the South Carolina House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 67th district (2000–present)
- Henry Brown · former SC-01 (2001–2011)
- Rick Santorum · former Pennsylvania (1995–2007)
- Thomas F. Hartnett · former SC-01 (1981–1987)
DMac Deford0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-24Mark SmithH6SC01250 ↗
Receipts
$778.1K
Disburse
$553.4K
Cash on hand
$224.8K
Debts
$300.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mac DefordH6SC01227 ↗
Receipts
$575.3K
Disburse
$516.1K
Cash on hand
$59.1K
Debts
$1.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$46.9K
D side
$25.0K · 53%
R side
$21.9K · 47%
Top spender
Palmetto Point
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmetto Point other · boosts D
| D | $25.0K | 53% | for Mac Deford |
| LOWCOUNTRY PATRIOT FUND other · boosts R
| R | $21.9K | 47% | for Mark Smith |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
78 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles78
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.10
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.10
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 10%
Neutral 90%
10% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets10%
Neutral90%
R-leaning outlets0%
10% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Jenny Honeycutt (R) defeated Mark Smith (R) in the Republican primary runoff for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
K
Nancy Lacore wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
G
2026 South Carolina primary runoff election results. Who's on the ballot
W
25-year-old Zyon Khalifa wins Democratic runoff in South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District
W
Honeycutt wins GOP runoff for South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
N
Albany native advances in South Carolina House race
N
Who Is Ahead in the South Carolina Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
K
Zyon Khalifa wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District
K
Jenny Costa Honeycutt wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
C
Honeycutt, Lacore win nomination for South Carolina’s First Congressional District
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-24
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks