Republican primary · June 9, 2026
South Carolina house Republican primary
Field of 1 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
87
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (29.4pp).
Forecast CI width98
29.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution98 / 100
Measured29.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Mark SmithMark Smith may refer to:
2Jenna Cost Honeycutt
3Jenny Costa Honeycutt
4Sam McCown
5Alex Pelbath
6Logan Cunningham
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Smith | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5 | Meeting Street Insights | 400 · LV | 28 | — |
| May 18 | Pulse Decision Science | 418 · LV | 16 | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetMark Smith · 5
RMark Smith5 endorsers
Most notable · Davey Hiott · majority leader of the South Carolina House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 4th district (2004–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Davey Hiott · majority leader of the South Carolina House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 4th district (2004–present)
- Murrell Smith · speaker of the South Carolina House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 67th district (2000–present)
- Henry Brown · former SC-01 (2001–2011)
- Rick Santorum · former Pennsylvania (1995–2007)
- Thomas F. Hartnett · former SC-01 (1981–1987)
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-24In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
78 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles78
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.10
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.10
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 10%
Neutral 90%
10% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets10%
Neutral90%
R-leaning outlets0%
10% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Jenny Honeycutt (R) defeated Mark Smith (R) in the Republican primary runoff for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
K
Nancy Lacore wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
G
2026 South Carolina primary runoff election results. Who's on the ballot
W
25-year-old Zyon Khalifa wins Democratic runoff in South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District
W
Honeycutt wins GOP runoff for South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
N
Albany native advances in South Carolina House race
N
Who Is Ahead in the South Carolina Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
K
Zyon Khalifa wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District
K
Jenny Costa Honeycutt wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
C
Honeycutt, Lacore win nomination for South Carolina’s First Congressional District
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-24
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks