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Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Rachel Wallace vs Dan Meuser

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Safe RR +32.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Wallace (D)
99% Meuser (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +32.7 · 80% CI R+48.8 → R+16.6 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 5¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+19) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+48.8 (10th pctile) to R+16.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +32.7
80% CI: R +48.8 → R +16.6 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +40.6
80% CI R +44.9 → R +32.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.3
80% CI R +2.7 → D +2.1
CV MAE 1.87
consensusMarket-implied
R +15.9
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 5¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the PA-09 House seat?”
5¢94¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
1Wallace · 50%
Meuser · 50%1
RDan Meuser1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
DRachel Wallace1 endorser
Most notable · Tim Holden · former PA-17 (1993–2013)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Dan MeuserOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$125.4K
Debts
$250.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Rachel WallaceOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$497.5K
Disburse
$227.0K
Cash on hand
$270.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Tossupmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks