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Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Nancy Mannion vs Lloyd Smucker

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Safe RR +22.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
4% Mannion (D)
96% Smucker (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +22.7 · 80% CI R+38.8 → R+6.6 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 12¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.8 (10th pctile) to R+6.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.7
80% CI: R +38.8 → R +6.6 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +0.3
80% CI R +2.7 → D +2.1
CV MAE 1.87
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.1
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 12¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
5¢10¢15¢20¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the PA-11 House seat?”
12¢87¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 1 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Smucker · 100%1
RLloyd Smucker1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
DNancy Mannion0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Lloyd SmuckerOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$1.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Nancy MannionOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$153.4K
Disburse
$138.2K
Cash on hand
$15.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Tossupmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks