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Races · house · 2026 · Pennsylvania
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house · open seat

Bob Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick

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Tilt RR +1.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 2 polls · 4 marketsLast poll 107d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
44% Harvie (D)
56% Fitzpatrick (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +1.8 · 80% CI R+17.9 → D+14.3 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 49¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 56% R

Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+6.0, sourced from polls).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.9 (10th pctile) to D+14.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 56% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.8
80% CI: R +17.9 → D +14.3 · win prob 44%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used2
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +2.8
80% CI R +13.3 → R +0.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +3.2
80% CI R +6.8 → D +0.4
CV MAE 2.78
consensusMarket-implied
R +0.3
no interval
market-implied

Polling average

3640444852FITZPATRICK 48.0HARVIE 42.0OCT '25DEC '25MAR '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 49¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 7 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 49% · polls 42%.
Cross-platform price · history
20¢30¢40¢50¢60¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?”
48¢51¢+0¢—-1
Kalshi
“PA-01 House winner?”
49¢52¢+1¢$0K+1

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Mar 21, 26Global Strategy Group+1For · Internal D-aligned400 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean42 · 48
Oct 10, 25Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned585 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy41 · 41

Endorsements · 63 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
22Harvie · 35%
Fitzpatrick · 65%41
RBrian Fitzpatrick41 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations21
Elected officials14
Federal 8State 6Local 0
Other5
Newspapers1
DBob Harvie22 endorsers
Most notable · Austin Davis · lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
Elected officials21
Federal 7State 9Local 4
Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-14
Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277 ↗
Receipts
$5.7M
Disburse
$2.8M
Cash on hand
$7.3M
Debts
$24.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Bob HarvieH6PA01181 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$850.8K
Cash on hand
$604.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$29.5K
D side
$18.9K · 64%
R side
$10.6K · 36%
Top spender
Losers and Suckers …
For / against split
Against Fitzpatrick $18.9K
Against Harvie $10.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
Losers and Suckers VoteD$18.9K64%against Brian Fitzpatrick
Defending America PACR$10.6K36%against Bob Harvie

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Lean R2
Likely R1
Cook Political Report
Likely R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Lean R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Lean D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Jun 4, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 5, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 3, 2026Tossupmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-14
Endorsements66 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks