Races · house · 2026 · New York

house · open seat

Aaron Gies vs Nick Langworthy

← New York house New York house →

Safe RR +20.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
5% Gies (D)
95% Langworthy (R)
Win probability
Aaron Gies5% (D)
Nick Langworthy95% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +20.7
80% CIR+36.8 → R+4.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +20.7 · 80% CI R+36.8 → R+4.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 17¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 95% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+36.8 (10th pctile) to R+4.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +20.7

80% CI: R +36.8 → R +4.6 · win prob 5%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +23.2

80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +4.1

80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5

CV MAE 3.58

consensusMarket-implied

R +8.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 17¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?”	17¢	84¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 5 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

3Gies · 60%
Langworthy · 40%2
Endorsements tracked
Aaron Gies3 · 60%
Nick Langworthy2 · 40%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DAaron Gies3 endorsers

Most notable · Communication Workers of America · District 1

Organizations3

RNick Langworthy2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Nick LangworthyOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$2.0M

Disburse

$934.9K

Cash on hand

$2.1M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Aaron GiesOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$200.1K

Disburse

$172.1K

Cash on hand

$21.8K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.