Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
New York house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 85% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 94%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.3 (10th pctile) to D+28.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 85% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.8
80% CI: R +3.3 → D +28.9 · win prob 85%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +5.4
80% CI R +14.1 → D +13.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +13.7
no interval
market-implied
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Feb 17, 2026 · latest Impact Research
Dem
VoteHub42.0%
VoteHub
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Rep
VoteHub35.0%
VoteHub
Polling average35.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Feb 17, 2026): Dem 42.0%, Rep 35.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
Endorsements · 16 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet16
Endorsements tracked
Pat Ryan16 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total16
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DPat Ryan16 endorsers
Most notable · Pat Ryan · incumbent U.S. representative
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- AIPAC
- Brady Campaign
- Citizen Action · of New York
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- Conservative Party of New York State
- Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- New York State Nurses Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Working Families Party · ies Party
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Pat Ryan · incumbent U.S. representative
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-04-15Pat RyanH8NY19223 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$2.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$905.92
D side
$905.92 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
NEW YORK STATE COMM…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW YORK STATE COMMITTEE OF THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTY party · boosts D
| D | $875 | 97% | for Pat Ryan |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $30.92 | 3% | for Pat Ryan |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-04-15
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks