Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vs Diamant Hysenaj
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+19) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+31.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.5 (10th pctile) to D+47.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +31.6
80% CI: D +15.5 → D +47.7 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +38.8
80% CI D +34.5 → D +43.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat?” | 95¢ | 6¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 18 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet18
Endorsements tracked
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18 · 100%
Diamant Hysenaj0 · 0%
Total18
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez18 endorsers
Most notable · Association of Flight Attendants
Organizations18
Organizations · 18
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Citizen Action · of New York
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
- District Council 37
- Justice Democrats
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- NYC District Council of Carpenters
- New York City Democratic Socialists of America
- New York State Nurses Association
- New York State United Teachers
- Our Revolution
- Peace Action
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Progressive Democrats of America
- The Jewish Vote
- Track AIPAC
- United Auto Workers · Region 9
RDiamant Hysenaj0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Alexandria Ocasio-CortezH8NY15148 ↗
Receipts
$31.1M
Disburse
$18.9M
Cash on hand
$15.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Diamant Hysenaj
Receipts
$319.5K
Disburse
$303.2K
Cash on hand
$16.3K
Debts
$27.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks