Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
New York house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+27) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+38.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+22.8 (10th pctile) to D+55.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
58.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured58.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +38.9
80% CI: D +22.8 → D +55.0 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +54.6
80% CI D +49.3 → D +58.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NY-15 House seat?” | 94¢ | 1¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 35 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet35
Endorsements tracked
Ritchie Torres35 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total35
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRitchie Torres35 endorsers
Most notable · Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
Elected officials20
Federal 7State 7Local 6
Elected officials · 20
- Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
- Carl Heastie · speaker of the New York State Assembly (2015–present) from the 83rd district (2001–present)
- Jamaal Bailey · state senator from the 36th district (2017–present) and chair of the Bronx Democratic Party (2020–present)
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Adriano Espaillat · NY-13 (2017–present)
- Gregory Meeks · NY-05 (1998–present)
- Linda Sánchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Althea Stevens · New York City councilmember from the 16th district (2022–present)
- Chantel Jackson · state assemblymember from the 79th district (2021–present)
- Eric Dinowitz · New York City councilmember from the 11th district (2021–present)
- George Alvarez · state assemblymember from the 78th district (2023–present)
- Jeffrey Dinowitz · state assemblymember from the 81st district (1994–present)
- John Zaccaro · state assemblymember from the 80th district (2023–present)
- Justin Sanchez · New York City councilmember from the 17th district (2026–present)
- Kevin Riley · New York City councilmember from the 12th district (2021–present)
- Landon Dais · state assemblymember from the 77th district (2024–present)
- Oswald Feliz · New York City councilmember from the 15th district (2021–present)
- Pierina Sanchez · New York City councilmember from the 14th district (2022–present)
- Vanessa Gibson · Bronx Borough President (2022–present)
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- AIPAC
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus
- Council of School Supervisors & Administrators
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Equality PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- NYC District Council of Carpenters
- National Organization for Women
- New York State United Teachers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Stonewall Democratic Club of New York
- Stonewall Democrats
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-19Ritchie TorresH0NY15160 ↗
Receipts
$6.7M
Disburse
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$14.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.8M
D side
$3.8M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Protect Progress
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect Progress super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.4M | 37% | for Ritchie Torres |
| THINK BIG other · boosts D
| D | $1.1M | 29% | for Ritchie Torres |
| Equality PAC other · boosts D
| D | $612.4K | 16% | for Ritchie Torres |
| FIGHTING FOR NEW YORK. INC. pac · boosts D
| D | $341.2K | 9% | for Ritchie Torres |
| FELLOWSHIP PAC other · boosts D
| D | $300.0K | 8% | for Ritchie Torres |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-19
Endorsements45 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks