Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
Chris Gallant vs Nick LaLota
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 79% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.2 (10th pctile) to D+6.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 79% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +10.1
80% CI: R +26.2 → D +6.0 · win prob 21%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +10.9
80% CI R +13.9 → R +8.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +3.9
80% CI R +8.6 → D +0.7
CV MAE 3.63
consensusMarket-implied
R +2.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 38¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?” | 38¢ | 65¢ | -3¢ | — | +0 |
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Dec 11, 2025 · latest Public Policy Polling
Nick LaLota
VoteHub41.0%
VoteHub
Polling average41.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg41.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average41.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt below our average
Chris Gallant
VoteHub38.0%
VoteHub
Polling average38.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg37.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average37.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Dec 11, 2025): Nick LaLota 41.0%, Chris Gallant 38.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 579 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 38 · 41 |
Endorsements · 74 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet5
69
Endorsements tracked
Chris Gallant5 · 7%
Nick LaLota69 · 93%
Total74
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RNick LaLota69 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations29
Organizations · 29
- Edward F. Cox · Chair of the New York Republican Party
- Conservative Party of New York State
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Detectives' Endowment Association
- Dutchess County · Democratic Committee
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
- Equality PAC
- Giffords
- Independence Party of New York · entist ( Independence Party of New York )
- Jim Owles Liberal Democratic Club
- LPAC
- Latino Victory Fund
- Log Cabin Republicans
- Majority Democrats
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
- NYC District Council of Carpenters
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- New York State United Teachers
- NewDem Action Fund
- Our Revolution
- Putnam County · Democratic Committee
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Staten Island · Democratic Party
- Staten Island Republican Party
- Stonewall Democratic Club of New York
- VoteVets
- Westchester County · Democratic Committee
- Working Families Party
Elected officials24
Federal 16State 6Local 2
Elected officials · 24
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Charles Fall · state assemblymember from the 61st district (2019–present) and chair of the Staten Island Democratic Party (2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Eliot Spitzer · former governor of New York (2007–2008)
- Nina Turner · former Ohio state senator from the 25th district (2008–2014)
- Maura Sullivan · former Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs (2015)
- Chris Tague · AD-102 (2018–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Mike Lawler · NY-17 (2023–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Ritchie Torres · NY-15 (2021–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Seth Moulton · MA-06 (2015–present)
- Brooklyn · an, former assistant to Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso
- Briarcliff Manor · ormer mayor of Briarcliff Manor
- Jamaal Bowman · former NY-16 (2021–2025)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
- Mimi Rocah · former District Attorney of Westchester County (2021-2024)
- Mondaire Jones · former NY-17 (2021–2023)
- Patrick Carroll · New York state assemblymember from the 96th district (2025-present)
- Sandy Galef · former New York state assemblymember from the 90th district (1993-2012) and the 95th district (2013-2022)
- Sean Patrick Maloney · former U.S. Ambassador to the OECD (2024–2025) and former U.S. representative from the 18th district (2013–2023)
Other12
Other · 12
- Cait Conley · former senior advisor to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
- Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency · ecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
- Ed Cox · New York State chairman
- Elissa Slotkin · Michigan (2025-present)
- FBI · n Sullivan, former FBI intelligence analyst
- Karen Ortiz · former Equal Employment Opportunity Commission administrative judge (2018–2025) ( Independent )
- Metropolitan Transportation Authority · tation Authority board member
- Rockland County · Rockland County legislator
- Tarrytown · llips-Staley, Tarrytown village trustee
- Track AIPAC
- Unaffiliated · naffiliated )
- WNYW · Sacks, former WNYW political reporter
Celebrity4
Celebrity · 4
- Brandon del Pozo · professor and former NYPD officer
- Gloria Steinem · prominent feminism activist
- Morris Katz · political strategist
- Zephyr Teachout · attorney
DChris Gallant5 endorsers
Most notable · John Avlon · political commentator and journalist
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Fred Thiele · former state assemblymember from the 1st district (1995–2024)
- Pete Buttigieg · former U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Steve Englebright · former state assemblymember from the 4th district (1992–2022)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- John Avlon · political commentator and journalist
- Working Families Party · ies Party
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Nick LaLota
Receipts
$3.3M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$3.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris Gallant
Receipts
$515.9K
Disburse
$434.1K
Cash on hand
$81.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
10 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
10 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles10
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.20
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.14 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.20
Week-over-weekshift −0.14 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 30%
Neutral 60%
R 10%
40% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets30%
Neutral60%
R-leaning outlets10%
40% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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New York 2026 Election Polls
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements76 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage10 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks