Races · house · 2026 · Nevada
house · open seat
Dina Titus vs Carrie Buck
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 77% D · market gap 12pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 89%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.9 (10th pctile) to D+25.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 77% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 77%, market says 89% — 12pp gap.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.2
80% CI: R +6.9 → D +25.3 · win prob 77%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.1
80% CI D +2.7 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.9
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 19 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet15
4
Endorsements tracked
Dina Titus15 · 79%
Carrie Buck4 · 21%
Total19
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDina Titus15 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- AIPAC
- Christopher Street Project
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Giffords
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Education Association
- National Organization for Women · PAC
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Professional Firefighters of Nevada
- Reproductive Freedom for All
RCarrie Buck4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Maggie's List
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Dina TitusH8NV03036 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$311.4K
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Carrie Buck
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$824.0K
Cash on hand
$419.4K
Debts
$26.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.2K
D side
$5.2K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
WESTERN STATES REGI…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WESTERN STATES REGIONAL COUNCIL OF CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT CMTE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS & JOINERS OF AMERICA pac · boosts D
| D | $5.1K | 98% | for Dina Titus |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $106.67 | 2% | for Dina Titus |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Dina Titus |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements20 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks