Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey

house · open seat

New Jersey house

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Likely RR +14.4 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 1 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 411d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
13% (D)
87% Drew (R)
Win probability
Democrat13% (D)
Jeff Van Drew87% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +14.4
80% CIR+30.5 → D+1.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +14.4 · 80% CI R+30.5 → D+1.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 28¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 87% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.5 (10th pctile) to D+1.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 87% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +14.4

80% CI: R +30.5 → D +1.6 · win prob 13%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	1
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +14.0

80% CI R +19.2 → R +9.0

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +5.1

no interval

market-implied

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
4244464850DREW 46.0MAY '25MAY '25MAY '25
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 28¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

20¢25¢30¢35¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?”	28¢	71¢	+0¢	—	+0

All polls · 1 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
May 21	Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned	505 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	46

Endorsements · 5 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

Drew · 100%5
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Jeff Van Drew5 · 100%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RJeff Van Drew5 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Other3

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-29

Jeff Van DrewOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$1.7M

Disburse

$1.1M

Cash on hand

$1.4M

Debts

$8.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$76.3K

D side

$76.3K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

—

For / against split

For Winder $76.3K

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R1

Safe R3

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Likely R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.