Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Raymond Smith Jr. vs Greg Murphy
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 96% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.8 (10th pctile) to R+6.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.7
80% CI: R +38.8 → R +6.6 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.3
80% CI R +6.9 → R +1.7
CV MAE 2.02
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 13¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?” | 13¢ | 85¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet3
2
Endorsements tracked
Raymond Smith Jr.3 · 60%
Greg Murphy2 · 40%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRaymond Smith Jr.3 endorsers
Most notable · Congressional Black Caucus PAC
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC
- Red Wine & Blue
- Young Democrats of North Carolina
RGreg Murphy2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
LDaniel Cavender0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-03Raymond Smith Jr.H6NC03229 ↗
Receipts
$115.7K
Disburse
$68.5K
Cash on hand
$41.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Greg Murphy
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$903.8K
Cash on hand
$2.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$6.8K
D side
$6.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
ADVANCE NORTH CAROLINA
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADVANCE NORTH CAROLINA pac · boosts D
| D | $6.6K | 98% | for Raymond Smith Jr. |
| RED WINE AND BLUE pac · boosts D
| D | $125.69 | 2% | for Raymond Smith Jr. |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jul 3
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-03
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks