Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Jamie Ager vs Chuck Edwards
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 13d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 70% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+6.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.7 (10th pctile) to D+9.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 70% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +6.6
80% CI: R +22.7 → D +9.5 · win prob 30%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +13.9
80% CI R +14.7 → R +10.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.0
80% CI R +3.9 → D +5.9
CV MAE 3.81
consensusMarket-implied
D +1.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 55¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 10 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 55% · polls 45%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?” | 55¢ | 45¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 45 · 44 |
Endorsements · 13 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet10
3
Endorsements tracked
Jamie Ager10 · 77%
Chuck Edwards3 · 23%
Total13
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJamie Ager10 endorsers
Most notable · Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- 314 Action
- Blue Dog PAC
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- End Citizens United
- Patriotic Millionaires
- Red Wine & Blue
- United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America · Southern Regional Council of Carpenters
- WelcomePAC
- Young Democrats of North Carolina
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
RChuck Edwards3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Charles Taylor · former NC-11 (1991-2007)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-03Jamie AgerH6NC11248 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$575.6K
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chuck Edwards
Receipts
$784.8K
Disburse
$406.4K
Cash on hand
$487.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$42.64
D side
$42.64 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
RED WINE AND BLUE
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RED WINE AND BLUE pac · boosts D
| D | $42.64 | 100% | for Jamie Ager |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R4
Lean R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Lean RInside Elections
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
7 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
7 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles7
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.86
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.50 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.86
Week-over-weekshift −0.50 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 86%
Neutral 14%
86% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets86%
Neutral14%
R-leaning outlets0%
86% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
Edwards vs. Ager 11th District contest could be toss-up by November, experts say
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-03
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage7 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks