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Races · house · 2026 · Missouri
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Matt Levine vs Sam Graves

← Missouri houseMissouri house →
Safe RR +32.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Levine (D)
99% Graves (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +32.3 · 80% CI R+48.4 → R+16.2 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 7¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+19) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+48.4 (10th pctile) to R+16.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +32.3
80% CI: R +48.4 → R +16.2 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +40.6
80% CI R +44.9 → R +32.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?”
7¢94¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 1 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Graves · 100%1
RSam Graves1 endorser
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations1
DMatt Levine0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-30
Sam GravesOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$881.6K
Cash on hand
$3.3M
Debts
$56.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Matt LevineOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$39.5K
Disburse
$38.9K
Cash on hand
$585.56
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$90.1K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$90.1K · 100%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Willett $90.1K

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-30
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks