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Races · house · 2026 · Missouri
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Ricky Dana vs Mark Alford

← Missouri houseMissouri house →
Safe RR +34.1 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Dana (D)
99% Alford (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +34.1 · 80% CI R+50.2 → R+18.0 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 7¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+21) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+50.2 (10th pctile) to R+18.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +34.1
80% CI: R +50.2 → R +18.0 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +45.7
80% CI R +57.6 → R +32.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the MO-04 House seat?”
7¢93¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 1 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Alford · 100%1
RMark Alford1 endorser
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations1
DRicky Dana0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Mark AlfordOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$581.6K
Cash on hand
$742.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ricky DanaOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$577.92
Disburse
$577.92
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements6 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks