Races · house · 2026 · MO
house · open seat

Missouri house

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Lean R — · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 0 markets Last poll 353d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 81% R

lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +12.0
80% CI: R +29.5 → D +5.5 · win prob 19%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used1
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +12.0
80% CI R +29.5 → D +5.5
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 1 results

1 of 1 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
5/22/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)584±4.0unknown
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned353d old+2
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 353d old
    Poll was fielded 353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ann Wagner 46.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Feb 6 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Mar 7 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Oct 2 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 12 months ago (5/22/2025) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/4/2026 Lean R via pvi

In the news

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