Races · house · 2026 · Missouri

house · open seat

Fred Wellman vs Ann Wagner

← Missouri house Missouri house →

Likely RR +13.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 2 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 37d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
14% Wellman (D)
86% Wagner (R)
Win probability
Fred Wellman14% (D)
Ann Wagner86% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +13.7
80% CIR+29.8 → D+2.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +13.7 · 80% CI R+29.8 → D+2.4 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 24¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 86% R

Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+3.0, sourced from polls).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.8 (10th pctile) to D+2.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 86% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Uncertainty score: 95/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.

CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

High uncertainty

Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.

Forecast CI width100

32.2pp 80% interval

Inter-model disagreement54

10.7pp across models

Polling sparsity88

1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +13.7

80% CI: R +29.8 → D +2.4 · win prob 14%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +12.3

80% CI R +12.5 → R +10.1

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +3.0

80% CI R +7.4 → D +1.4

CV MAE 3.44

consensusMarket-implied

R +6.4

no interval

market-implied

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
384042444648WAGNER 44.0WELLMAN 41.0MAY '26MAY '26MAY '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 24¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

DisagreementMarkets are 17 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 24% · polls 41%.

Cross-platform price · history

15¢20¢25¢30¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?”	24¢	75¢	+4¢	—	+0

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
May 30, 26	FM3 Research+1For · Internal D-aligned	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	-9.6noisy	41 · 44
May 21, 25	Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned	584 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	46

Endorsements · 9 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

5Wellman · 56%
Wagner · 44%4
Endorsements tracked
Fred Wellman5 · 56%
Ann Wagner4 · 44%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DFred Wellman5 endorsers

Most notable · Eugene Vindman · VA-07 (2025–present)

Elected officials3

Federal 3State 0Local 0

Organizations2

RAnn Wagner4 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Organizations3

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-12-22

Ann WagnerH2MO02102 ↗

Receipts

$2.9M

Disburse

$1.5M

Cash on hand

$4.5M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Fred WellmanOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$808.8K

Disburse

$562.2K

Cash on hand

$246.6K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$75.38

D side

$75.38 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

HEARTLAND WINS

For / against split

Against Wagner $75.38

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HEARTLAND WINS	D	$75.38	100%	against Ann Wagner

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R1

Safe R3

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Likely R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.