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RepublicanRunning for MO-2 U.S. House · 2026
Ann Wagner
Ann Louise Wagner is an American politician and former diplomat serving as the U.S. representative for Missouri's 2nd congressional district since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, she was the United States ambassador to Luxembourg from 2005 to 2009.
Born 1962 · St. Louis , Missouri , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03
Republican Ann Wagner, the U.S. representative for Missouri's 2nd district since 2013, is running for the seat. A former ambassador to Luxembourg (2005-2009), she polls at about 44% to opponent Fred Wellman's roughly 41%, with a Polymarket-implied win probability of around 80%. She has raised approximately $3 million for the campaign.
44%
Polling average
our aggregate
75%
Win probability
market-implied
$2.9M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Wagner's money comes from.
C+
48/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — pac independence is the watch item.
2 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance38
19% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
37% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding54
46% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
What Wagner did in office.
MeasureYearAction
Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act
Became Public Law No: 119-45.
2025
Became law
Debbie Smith Act of 2023
Became Public Law No: 118-72.
2023
Became law
Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act of 2017
Became Public Law No: 115-164.
2017
Became law
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 16105 Swingley Ridge Road in Chesterf
Became Public Law No: 114-76.
2015
Became law
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 55 Grasso Plaza in St. Louis, Missour
Became Public Law No: 114-77.
2015
Became law
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 11662 Gravois Road in St. Louis, Miss
Became Public Law No: 114-78.
2015
Became law
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 5323 Highway N in Cottleville, Missou
Became Public Law No: 113-113.
2013
Became law
SPONSORED LEGISLATION VIA CONGRESS.GOV · ENACTED BILLS FIRST, THEN THE MOST RECENT · ROLE SHOWS THE BILL'S LATEST STATUS.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How Wagner votes
With the party, against it, and where on the spectrum.
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Wagner
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
70
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 578 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
98%voted with Republicans · 2% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
1999Party chair
1999–2005
2005United States Ambassador to Luxembourg
2005–2009
2013United States representative
since 2013
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$2.9M
Raised
$1.5M
Spent
$4.5M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
19% small (<$200)44% large indiv.37% PAC
54% in-state · 46% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Wagner is running in.
MO · HOUSE · 2026lean r
Wagner (R) vs Fred Wellman (D)
44%+3.0 Wagner41%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Wagner and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: OFFICIAL HOUSE PHOTO · CC BY-SA 4.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
fox2now.com · 2026-07-05
Five key races and ballot questions to know for Missouri’s August 2026 primary
firstalert4.com · 2026-06-29
VOTER GUIDE: August 4 primary election in Missouri
darnews.com · 2026-06-26
Billington launches Missouri Senate District 25 bid while competition underway for District 152 House seat
nytimes.com · 2026-06-26
Missouri Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Republican · MO-2 U.S. House
Ann Wagner
Ann Louise Wagner is an American politician and former diplomat serving as the U.S. representative for Missouri's 2nd congressional district since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, she was the United States ambassador to Luxembourg from 2005 to 2009.
Where Wagner standsRace →
Wagner 44%Fred Wellman 41%
Market · wins
75¢
44%
Poll avg
75%
Win prob
$2.9M
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-03Republican Ann Wagner, the U.S. representative for Missouri's 2nd district since 2013, is running for the seat. A former ambassador to Luxembourg (2005-2009), she polls at about 44% to opponent Fred Wellman's roughly 41%, with a Polymarket-implied win probability of around 80%. She has raised approximately $3 million for the campaign.
Governing & voting record
Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act
2025 · BECAME LAW
Debbie Smith Act of 2023
2023 · BECAME LAW
Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act of 2017
2017 · BECAME LAW
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 16105 Swingley Ridge Road in Chesterf
2015 · BECAME LAW
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 55 Grasso Plaza in St. Louis, Missour
2015 · BECAME LAW
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 11662 Gravois Road in St. Louis, Miss
2015 · BECAME LAW
To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 5323 Highway N in Cottleville, Missou
2013 · BECAME LAW
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
1999Party chair
1999–2005
2005United States Ambassador to Luxembourg
2005–2009
2013United States representative
since 2013
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Wagner's money comes from.
C+
48/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — pac independence is the watch item.
2 watch items · pac independence
Small-dollar reliance38
19% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence0
37% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding54
46% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How Wagner votes
Ideological placement · roll-call record
Dem median
GOP median
Wagner
← LiberalCenterConservative →
Center-right
Overall lean
70
DW-NOMINATE · 0–100
DW-NOMINATE FIRST-DIMENSION SCORE FROM ROLL-CALL VOTES IN THE 119TH CONGRESS (HOUSE), VIA VOTEVIEW. 0 = MOST LIBERAL, 100 = MOST CONSERVATIVE.
Party unity · 578 roll-calls · 119th Congress (House)
98%voted with Republicans · 2% broke ranks
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$2.9M
Raised
$1.5M
Spent
$4.5M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
19% small (<$200)44% large indiv.37% PAC
54% in-state · 46% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: OFFICIAL HOUSE PHOTO · CC BY-SA 4.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)