Races · house · 2026 · Minnesota

house · open seat

Jake Johnson vs Pete Stauber

← Minnesota house Missouri house →

Safe RR +16.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
9% Johnson (D)
91% Stauber (R)
Win probability
Jake Johnson9% (D)
Pete Stauber91% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +16.7
80% CIR+32.8 → R+0.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +16.7 · 80% CI R+32.8 → R+0.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 25¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 91% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+32.8 (10th pctile) to R+0.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 91% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +16.7

80% CI: R +32.8 → R +0.6 · win prob 9%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +19.3

80% CI R +23.4 → R +13.0

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +6.5

80% CI R +9.8 → R +3.2

CV MAE 2.58

consensusMarket-implied

R +6.1

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 25¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat?”	25¢	74¢	-1¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

Stauber · 100%3
Endorsements tracked
Jake Johnson0 · 0%
Pete Stauber3 · 100%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RPete Stauber3 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Organizations2

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

DJake Johnson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IOliver Morlan0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-03

Pete StauberH8MN08043 ↗

Receipts

$1.5M

Disburse

$991.4K

Cash on hand

$1.0M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.1K

D side

$1.1K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

MINNESOTA DEMOCRATI…

For / against split

Against Stauber $1.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC-FARMER-LABOR PARTY	D	$1.1K	100%	against Pete Stauber

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.