| 3/14/2026 | Ragnar Research Partners | 1.00 | R | 400 | ±5.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+2- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Bill Huizenga 48.0 · Sean McCann 42.0 | pollarch |
| 1/17/2026 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 592 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡113d old+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
113d old Poll was fielded 113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Mike Bouchard Jr. 43.0 · Eric Chung 41.0 | pollarch |
| 1/17/2026 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 592 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡113d old+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
113d old Poll was fielded 113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Mike Bouchard Jr. 44.0 · Tim Greimel 42.0 | pollarch |
| 1/17/2026 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 592 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡113d old+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
113d old Poll was fielded 113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Mike Bouchard Jr. 42.0 · Christina Hines 44.0 | pollarch |
| 11/21/2025 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 559 | ±4.1 | RV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡170d old+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
170d old Poll was fielded 170 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Bill Huizenga 44.0 · Sean McCann 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2025 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 557 | ±4.2 | RV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡194d old+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
194d old Poll was fielded 194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Tom Barrett 41.0 · Bridget Brink 45.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2025 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 557 | ±4.2 | RV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡194d old+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
194d old Poll was fielded 194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Tom Barrett 39.0 · Matt Maasdam 43.0 | pollarch |