Races · house · 2026 · Maryland
house · open seat
Maryland house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 3d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 89% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+15.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+0.9 (10th pctile) to D+31.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 89% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 4.0% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 91/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
91
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement39
7.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution39 / 100
Measured7.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +15.1
80% CI: R +0.9 → D +31.2 · win prob 89%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI D +2.7 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the MD-06 House seat?” | 94¢ | 7¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 32 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet32
Endorsements tracked
April McClain Delaney32 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total32
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DApril McClain Delaney32 endorsers
Most notable · Aruna Miller · lieutenant governor of Maryland (2023–present)
Elected officials17
Federal 9State 5Local 1
Elected officials · 17
- Aruna Miller · lieutenant governor of Maryland (2023–present)
- Wes Moore · governor of Maryland (2023–present)
- Cheryl Kagan · state senator from the 17th district (2015–present)
- Karen Lewis Young · state senator from the 3rd district (2023-present)
- Anthony Brown · attorney general of Maryland (2023–present)
- Glenn Ivey · MD-04 (2023–present)
- Jamie Raskin · MD-08 (2017–present)
- Johnny Olszewski · MD-02 (2025–present)
- Nancy Pelosi · CA-11 (1987–present)
- Sarah Elfreth · MD-03 (2025–present)
- Steny Hoyer · MD-05 (1981–present)
- Angela Alsobrooks · Maryland (2025–present)
- Chris Van Hollen · Maryland (2017–present)
- Joe Vogel · state delegate from the 17th district (2023–present) and candidate for this district in 2024
- Kweisi Mfume · MD-07 (1987–1996, 2020–present)
- Sarah McBride · DE-AL (2025–present)
- Sidney A. Katz · member of the Montgomery County Council from the 3rd district (2014–present)
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- AIPAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Humane World Action Fund
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Moms Demand Action
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- NewDem Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Sierra Club
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 1994 MCGEO
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-19April McClain DelaneyH4MD06340 ↗
Receipts
$8.5M
Disburse
$8.1M
Cash on hand
$426.3K
Debts
$11.3M
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$562.7K
D side
$520.3K · 92%
R side
$42.4K · 8%
Top spender
Protect Progress
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect Progress super pac · boosts D
| D | $516.4K | 92% | for April McClain Delaney |
| COMMON SENSE MARYLAND super pac · boosts R
| R | $42.4K | 8% | against April McClain Delaney |
| NEA ADVOCACY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $3.9K | 1% | for April McClain Delaney |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for April McClain Delaney |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
69 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles69
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
T
Maryland House Democrat fends off predecessor’s comeback bid in primary
B
Rep. McClain Delaney wins Democratic Primary for House Seat from Maryland
M
Some Maryland delegates still locked in tight primary contests two days after election
M
Concessions, victory laps mark the day after a ‘smooth’ Maryland primary contest
W
Maryland’s 2026 Primary Election Results
F
Kweisi Mfume wins Democratic nomination for Maryland's 7th Congressional District
T
What we learned from Maryland’s 2026 primary election results
C
Maryland voters tap Hoyer's hand-picked successor, incumbents in Democratic primaries
T
Jan. 6 officer Harry Dunn loses House primary bid in Maryland
B
Rep. McClain Delaney claims victory over ex-Rep. Trone after acrimonious primary
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-19
Endorsements47 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks