Races · house · 2026 · Maryland
house · open seat
Maryland house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+30.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+14.4 (10th pctile) to D+46.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 81/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
81
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement15
3.0pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution15 / 100
Measured3.0pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +30.5
80% CI: D +14.4 → D +46.6 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +33.5
80% CI D +28.3 → D +43.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the MD-05 House seat?” | 95¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 38 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet38
Endorsements tracked
Adrian Boafo38 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total38
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAdrian Boafo38 endorsers
Most notable · Yvette Lewis · chair of the Maryland Democratic Party (2011–2015, 2019–2023)
Elected officials24
Federal 4State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 24
- Angela Alsobrooks · U.S. senator from Maryland (2025–present)
- Dawn Gile · state senator from the 33rd district (2023–present)
- Kevin Harris · state senator from the 27th district (2025–present)
- Nick Charles · state senator from the 25th district (2023–present)
- Pamela Beidle · state senator from the 32nd district (2019–present)
- Ron Watson · state senator from the 23rd district (2021–present)
- Sarah Elfreth · MD-03 (2025–present)
- Steny Hoyer · MD-05 (1981–present)
- Albert Wynn · MD-04 (1993–2008)
- Andrew Pruski · state delegate from district 33A (2023–present)
- Cheryl Landis · state delegate from district 23B (2021–2023)
- Dana Jones · state delegate from district 30A (2020–present)
- Darrell Odom · state delegate from district 27A (2026–present)
- Denise Roberts · state delegate from the 25th district (2024–present)
- Dylan Behler · state delegate from district 30A (2025–present)
- Geraldine Valentino-Smith · state delegate from district 23A (2011–2023)
- John Bohanan · state delegate from district 29B (1999–2015)
- Karen Toles · state delegate from the 25th district (2022–present)
- Kent Roberson · state delegate from the 25th district (2023–present)
- Kym Taylor · state delegate from the 23rd district (2023–present)
- Mark S. Chang · state delegate from the 32nd district (2015–present)
- Marvin E. Holmes Jr. · state delegate from the 23rd district (2003–present)
- Rachel Jones · state delegate from district 27B (2021–2023)
- Wes Moore · Maryland governor (2023–present)
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers · Local 1
- Communication Workers of America
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Maryland State Education Association
- Moms Demand Action
- National Education Association
- New Democrat Coalition
- Protect Progress
- SMART
- Service Employees International Union · Local 500
- United Democracy Project
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Yvette Lewis · chair of the Maryland Democratic Party (2011–2015, 2019–2023)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Baltimore Afro-American
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-25Adrian BoafoH6MD05321 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$833.1K
Cash on hand
$304.0K
Debts
$25.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$12.1M
D side
$12.1M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
UNITED DEMOCRACY PR…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT (UDP) other · boosts D
| D | $5.7M | 47% | for Adrian Boafo |
| Protect Progress super pac · boosts D
| D | $5.3M | 43% | for Adrian Boafo |
| AMERIPAC: The Fund for a Greater America pac · boosts D
| D | $600.0K | 5% | for Adrian Boafo |
| Project 218 other · boosts D
| D | $250.0K | 2% | for Adrian Boafo |
| Rolling Sea Action Fund other · boosts D
| D | $250.0K | 2% | for Adrian Boafo |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-25
Endorsements59 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks