Races · house · 2026 · Maryland
house · open seat
Maryland house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+39) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+49.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+33.4 (10th pctile) to D+65.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +49.5
80% CI: D +33.4 → D +65.6 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +70.3
80% CI D +53.2 → D +78.7
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat?” | 94¢ | 3¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 16 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet16
Endorsements tracked
Glenn Ivey16 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total16
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DGlenn Ivey16 endorsers
Most notable · Wes Moore · Maryland governor (2023–present)
Organizations14
Organizations · 14
- AFL-CIO · d State & DC AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- Amalgamated Transit Union · Local 689
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Council 3
- Brady PAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- National Education Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Service Employees International Union · Local 500
- Sierra Club
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 1994 MCGEO
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Wes Moore · Maryland governor (2023–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Baltimore Afro-American
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Glenn Ivey
Receipts
$629.0K
Disburse
$487.0K
Cash on hand
$447.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements19 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks