Races · house · 2026 · Massachusetts

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Massachusetts house

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Safe DD +22.0 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 41d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
96% Andres-Beck (D)
4% (R)
Win probability
Beth Andres-Beck96% (D)
Republican4% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +22.0
80% CID+5.9 → D+38.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +22.0 · 80% CI D+5.9 → D+38.1 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.9 (10th pctile) to D+38.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Uncertainty score: 78/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

High uncertainty

Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.

Forecast CI width100

32.2pp 80% interval

Inter-model disagreement6

1.2pp across models

Polling sparsity100

0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +22.0

80% CI: D +5.9 → D +38.1 · win prob 96%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +20.8

80% CI R +20.8 → D +31.2

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +15.3

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MA-06 House seat?”	94¢	6¢	+1¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

2Andres-Beck · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Beth Andres-Beck2 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DBeth Andres-Beck2 endorsers

Most notable · Advocates for Trans Equality

Organizations2

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Beth Andres-BeckOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$247.7K

Disburse

$175.5K

Cash on hand

$9.5K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.