Democratic primary · September 1, 2026
Massachusetts house Democratic primary
Field of 6 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
92
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (29.1pp).
Forecast CI width97
29.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution97 / 100
Measured29.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Tram NguyenTram Thi Ngoc Nguyen is an American politician serving as a member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives from the 18th Essex Distric…
2John BecciaSportscaster
3Dan KohDaniel Arrigg Koh is an American politician. Koh was Deputy Assistant to President Joe Biden and deputy director of the White House Office o…
4Beth Andres-BeckChallenger
5Jamie BelsitoJamie Zahlaway Belsito is an American politician who serves as Town Moderator in Topsfield, Massachusetts. A member of the Democratic Party,…
6Maria LancasterChallenger
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Andres-Beck | Beccia | Belsito | Lancaster | Nguyen | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 | Workbench Strategy | 400 · LV | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 28 | +19 |
| Mar 23 | Schoen Cooperman Research | 450 · LV | 2 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 13 | +3 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 17 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetTram Nguyen · 13Beth Andres-Beck · 2Jamie Belsito · 2
DTram Nguyen13 endorsers
Most notable · Ron Mariano · Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives (2020–present) from the 3rd Norfolk district (1991–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 0State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Ron Mariano · Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives (2020–present) from the 3rd Norfolk district (1991–present)
- Lydia Edwards · state senator from the 1st Suffolk and Middlesex district (2022–present)
- Dave Robertson · state representative from the 19th Middlesex district (2019–present)
- Dawne Shand · state representative from the 1st Essex district (2023–present)
- Ken Gordon · state representative from the 21st Middlesex district (2013–present)
- Manny Cruz · state representative from the 7th Essex district (2023–present)
- Richard Haggerty · state representative from the 30th Middlesex district (2019–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- Boston Carmen's Union · Local 589
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Locals 1505, 2321, and 2325
- New American Leaders · Action Fund
- People for the American Way
- SEIU · Massachusetts state council
- United Auto Workers
DBeth Andres-Beck2 endorsers
Most notable · Advocates for Trans Equality
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Advocates for Trans Equality
- Progressive Victory
DJamie Belsito2 endorsers
Most notable · Peace Action · s Peace Action
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Peace Action · s Peace Action
Other1
Other · 1
- Diana DiZoglio · state auditor of Massachusetts (2023–present)
DJohn Beccia0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMaria Lancaster0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDan Koh0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
6 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
6 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles6
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.50
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.50
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 50%
Neutral 50%
50% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets50%
Neutral50%
R-leaning outlets0%
50% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Who Is Ahead in the Massachusetts Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
N
Massachusetts U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Internal Poll Shows Nguyen Expanding Lead in 6th District Race
N
Massachusetts' high court derails income tax cut ballot question
N
More Than Half Of Massachusetts Voters Can’t Name A Healey Administration Accomplishment, Poll Finds
B
Explore the full results of the Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of Massachusetts voters
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements58 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage6 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks