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Races · house · 2026 · Kentucky
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Ned Pillersdorf vs Hal Rogers

← Kentucky houseKentucky house →
Safe RR +41.4 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Pillersdorf (D)
99% Rogers (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +41.4 · 80% CI R+57.5 → R+25.3 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 6¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+32) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+41.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+57.5 (10th pctile) to R+25.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +41.4
80% CI: R +57.5 → R +25.3 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +65.8
80% CI R +82.2 → R +37.0
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +15.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 6¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?”
6¢94¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
1Pillersdorf · 33%
Rogers · 67%2
RHal Rogers2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Organizations1
DNed Pillersdorf1 endorser
Most notable · Martin O'Malley · former Social Security Administration Commissioner (2023–2024) and former governor of Maryland (2007–2015)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Hal RogersOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$747.7K
Disburse
$858.9K
Cash on hand
$860.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ned PillersdorfOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$115.6K
Disburse
$32.1K
Cash on hand
$83.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks