Races · house · 2026 · Kentucky

house · open seat

Kentucky house

← Kentucky house Kentucky house →

Safe DD +22.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
96% McGarvey (D)
4% (R)
Win probability
Morgan McGarvey96% (D)
Republican4% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +22.6
80% CID+6.5 → D+38.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +22.6 · 80% CI D+6.5 → D+38.7 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.9%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.5 (10th pctile) to D+38.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +22.6

80% CI: D +6.5 → D +38.7 · win prob 96%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +20.0

80% CI D +13.0 → D +24.8

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the KY-03 House seat?”	94¢	7¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

3McGarvey · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Morgan McGarvey3 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DMorgan McGarvey3 endorsers

Most notable · Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs

Organizations3

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Morgan McGarveyOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$1.4M

Disburse

$986.6K

Cash on hand

$1.7M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks