Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Illinois house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 90% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.3 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+32.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.3
80% CI: D +0.2 → D +32.4 · win prob 90%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +9.8
80% CI R +28.3 → D +20.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the IL-08 House seat?” | 93¢ | 8¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 20 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet20
Endorsements tracked
Melissa Bean20 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total20
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMelissa Bean20 endorsers
Most notable · Nancy Pelosi · former Speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 10State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Nancy Pelosi · former Speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz · FL-25 (2005–present)
- Greg Landsman · OH-01 (2023–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- Steny Hoyer · MD-05 (1981–present)
- Bill Foster · IL-11 (2008–2011, 2013–present)
- Brad Schneider · IL-10 (2013–2015, 2017–present)
- Tammy Duckworth · Illinois (2017–present)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- Chicago Fire Fighters Union · Local 2
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Elect Democratic Women
- Giffords
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Laborers' · aborers' District Council
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare · PAC
- NewDem Action Fund
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-09Melissa BeanH6IL08329 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$47.5K
Debts
$396.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$6.6M
D side
$6.6M · 100%
R side
$2.8K · 0%
Top spender
ELECT CHICAGO WOMEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELECT CHICAGO WOMEN AKA ECW super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.0M | 60% | for Melissa Bean |
| THINK BIG super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.1M | 17% | for Melissa Bean |
| New Democrat Majority super pac · boosts D
| D | $935.0K | 14% | for Melissa Bean |
| Protect Progress super pac · boosts D
| D | $557.0K | 8% | for Melissa Bean |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
6 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
6 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles6
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.67
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.67
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 67%
Neutral 33%
67% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets67%
Neutral33%
R-leaning outlets0%
67% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Illinois Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Illinois Eighth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Illinois U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Illinois Ninth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
A
Illinois Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
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Illinois U.S. House Primary Election Live Results 2026
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-09
Endorsements69 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage6 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks