Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Sean Casten vs Niki Conforti
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 92% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.4 (10th pctile) to D+33.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.5
80% CI: D +1.4 → D +33.5 · win prob 92%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI D +2.7 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.7
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?” | 93¢ | 5¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 21 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet18
3
Endorsements tracked
Sean Casten18 · 86%
Niki Conforti3 · 14%
Total21
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSean Casten18 endorsers
Most notable · Chicago Tribune · (Democratic primary only)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- 314 Action
- AFL-CIO · s AFL-CIO
- Chicago Federation of Labor
- Citizen Action · Illinois
- Cook County College Teachers Union · Local 1600
- Humane World Action Fund
- Illinois Federation of Teachers
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Locals 150 and 399
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Plumbers · Local 130
- SEIU · Healthcare
- Sierra Club
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune · (Democratic primary only)
- Daily Herald
RNiki Conforti3 endorsers
Most notable · Chicago Tribune · (Republican primary only)
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune · (Republican primary only)
- Daily Herald
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Maggie's List
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-20Sean CastenH8IL06139 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$455.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Niki Conforti
Receipts
$274.4K
Disburse
$248.4K
Cash on hand
$31.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$12.1K
D side
$12.1K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
National Associatio…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee pac · boosts D
| D | $12.1K | 100% | for Sean Casten |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Sean Casten |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.29 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift −0.29 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 29%
Neutral 71%
29% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets29%
Neutral71%
R-leaning outlets0%
29% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Benton steps down from Illinois House seat
S
Plainfield Democrat Benton resigns Illinois House seat after ethics investigation
S
Rich Miller: Illinois AFL-CIO unlikely to withhold endorsements
A
Supreme Court mail - in ballots ruling : Illinoisans praise decision affirming election administration largely under state control
C
Illinois AFL - CIO unlikely to withhold endorsements
W
Natalie Phelps Finnie to fill Illinois House seat vacated by Brandon Phelps
B
Watch Rep. Casten: Encouraged by Johnson Move on Housing Bill
N
Illinois Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
A
Illinois Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
A
Illinois U.S. House Primary Election Live Results 2026
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-20
Endorsements26 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks