Races · house · 2026 · Hawaii

house · open seat

Jill Tokuda vs Brenton Awa

← Hawaii house Iowa house →

Safe DD +25.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
98% Tokuda (D)
2% Awa (R)
Win probability
Jill Tokuda98% (D)
Brenton Awa2% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +25.7
80% CID+9.6 → D+41.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +25.7 · 80% CI D+9.6 → D+41.8 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 95¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+9.6 (10th pctile) to D+41.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +25.7

80% CI: D +9.6 → D +41.8 · win prob 98%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +26.0

80% CI D +20.3 → D +37.6

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +15.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?”	95¢	7¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 7 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

7Tokuda · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Jill Tokuda7 · 100%
Brenton Awa0 · 0%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJill Tokuda7 endorsers

Most notable · David Ige · former governor of Hawaii (2014–2022)

Organizations6

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

RBrenton Awa0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Jill TokudaOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$656.1K

Disburse

$547.8K

Cash on hand

$591.7K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Brenton AwaOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$90.1K

Disburse

$67.1K

Cash on hand

$23.0K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements7 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks