Races · house · 2026 · Florida

house · open seat

Bale Dalton vs Cory Mills

← Florida house Florida house →

Likely RR +10.1 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 1 polls · 2 marketsLast poll 47d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
21% Dalton (D)
79% Mills (R)
Win probability
Bale Dalton21% (D)
Cory Mills79% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +10.1
80% CIR+26.1 → D+6.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +10.1 · 80% CI R+26.1 → D+6.0 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 36¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 79% R

Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+2.0, sourced from polls).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.1 (10th pctile) to D+6.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 79% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Uncertainty score: 98/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.

CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain

Combined

High uncertainty

Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.

Forecast CI width100

32.2pp 80% interval

Inter-model disagreement71

14.1pp across models

Polling sparsity88

1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +10.1

80% CI: R +26.1 → D +6.0 · win prob 21%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	1
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +13.0

80% CI R +13.9 → R +12.6

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +1.1

80% CI R +3.4 → D +5.6

CV MAE 3.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +3.2

no interval

market-implied

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
3638404244DALTON 40.5MILLS 39.5MAY '26MAY '26MAY '26
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 36¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

DisagreementMarkets are 5 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 36% · polls 41%.

Cross-platform price · history

20¢30¢40¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?”	36¢	64¢	+0¢	—	+0

All polls · 1 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
May 20	Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned	570 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	41 · 39

Endorsements · 11 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

9Dalton · 82%
Mills · 18%2
Endorsements tracked
Bale Dalton9 · 82%
Cory Mills2 · 18%
Total11
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DBale Dalton9 endorsers

Most notable · Bill Nelson · former U.S. Senator from Florida (2001–2019)

Elected officials5

Federal 4State 0Local 1

Organizations4

RCory Mills2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-02-21

Cory MillsH2FL07156 ↗

Receipts

$805.3K

Disburse

$730.7K

Cash on hand

$115.5K

Debts

$2.0M

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Bale DaltonOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$692.2K

Disburse

$227.8K

Cash on hand

$464.4K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.6K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$3.6K · 100%

Top spender

CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC

For / against split

For Mills $3.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC	R	$3.6K	100%	for Cory Mills

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R5

Cook Political Report

Likely R

Jun 17

The Economist

Likely R

May 5

Inside Elections

Likely R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Likely R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.