Races · house · 2026 · FL
house · open seat

Robin Peguero vs María Elvira Salazar

← FL house FL house →
Likely R R +5.3 · 176 days to election · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 63d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 4 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 84% R

likely-r · trending-d · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +14.0
80% CI: R +31.5 → D +3.5 · win prob 16%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used4
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +14.0
80% CI R +31.5 → D +3.5
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 4 results

4 of 4 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/8/2026Blueprint Polling1.00L451±4.6RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 63d old
    Poll was fielded 63 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
María Elvira Salazar 47.0 · Robin Peguero 40.0pollarch
3/8/2026Blueprint Polling1.00L451±4.6RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 63d old
    Poll was fielded 63 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
María Elvira Salazar 46.0 · Elliot Rodriguez 43.0pollarch
3/7/2026MDW Communications1.00—514±4.3LV
no scored polls64d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 64d old
    Poll was fielded 64 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Carlos Gimenez 46.0 · Hector Mujica 40.0pollarch
4/12/2025MDW Communications1.00—555±3.0LV
no scored polls393d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 393d old
    Poll was fielded 393 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
María Elvira Salazar 46.0 · Richard Lamondin 43.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Likely R Jan 15 -5.3 -9.0 +3.7
Inside Elections Likely R Dec 5 -5.3 -9.0 +3.7
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Apr 10 -5.3 -18.0 +12.7

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 2 months ago (3/8/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely R R+5.3 via polls held 2d
  • 5/4/2026 Lean R via pvi

In the news

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