Public domain
DemocratRunning for FL-7 U.S. House · 2026
Bale Dalton
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives from the State of Florida, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 18, 2026.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Bale Dalton, a Democrat, is running for Florida's 7th Congressional District House seat in 2026. He and opponent Cory Mills are effectively tied in polling, each drawing about 40 percent support. Polymarket assigns Dalton roughly a 40 percent win probability. He has raised approximately $700,000.
40.5%
Polling average
our aggregate
36%
Win probability
market-implied
$692k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Dalton's money comes from.
B−
62/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
2 watch items · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance20
10% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence80
5% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding47
53% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$692k
Raised
$228k
Spent
$464k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
10% small (<$200)85% large indiv.5% PAC
47% in-state · 53% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Dalton is running in.
FL · HOUSE · 2026lean d
Dalton (D) vs Cory Mills (R)
40.5%+1.1 Dalton39.5%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Dalton and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: CUT FROM THE UPLOADIMAGE.NET BY THE AUTHOR OF XRMAP. · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
politico.com · 2026-07-05
A Jolly campaign in Florida amid an angry Democratic summer
nytimes.com · 2026-06-30
Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
floridapolitics.com · 2026-06-26
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
nytimes.com · 2026-06-26
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
Democrat · FL-7 U.S. House
Bale Dalton
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives from the State of Florida, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 18, 2026.
Where Dalton standsRace →
Dalton 40.5%Cory Mills 39.5%
Market · wins
36¢
40.5%
Poll avg
36%
Win prob
$692k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Bale Dalton, a Democrat, is running for Florida's 7th Congressional District House seat in 2026. He and opponent Cory Mills are effectively tied in polling, each drawing about 40 percent support. Polymarket assigns Dalton roughly a 40 percent win probability. He has raised approximately $700,000.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Dalton's money comes from.
B−
62/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — small-dollar reliance is the watch item.
2 watch items · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance20
10% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence80
5% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding47
53% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$692k
Raised
$228k
Spent
$464k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
10% small (<$200)85% large indiv.5% PAC
47% in-state · 53% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: CUT FROM THE UPLOADIMAGE.NET BY THE AUTHOR OF XRMAP. · PUBLIC DOMAIN (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)