Democratic primary · August 18, 2026
Florida house Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
80
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.8pp).
Forecast CI width73
21.8pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured21.8pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Elliot RodriguezChallenger
2Robin PegueroRobin Peguero ( Democratic Party ) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent Florida's 27th Congressional District . He is on t…
3Richard Lamondin
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Rodriguez | Peguero | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17 | Bendixen & Amandi International | 300 · LV | 54 | 28 | +26 |
| Mar 8 | Bendixen & Amandi International | 400 · LV | 43 | 16 | +27 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 34 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetElliot Rodriguez · 19Robin Peguero · 15
DElliot Rodriguez19 endorsers
Most notable · Shevrin Jones · state senator from the 34th district (2020–present)
Elected officials15
Federal 3State 7Local 5
Elected officials · 15
- Shevrin Jones · state senator from the 34th district (2020–present)
- Annie Betancourt · former state representative from the 116th district (1994–2002)
- Dan Gelber · former mayor of Miami Beach (2017–2023)
- Don Slesnick · former mayor of Coral Gables (2001–2011)
- Francisco O. Mora · former United States Ambassador to the Organization of American States (2022–2025)
- Javier Fernandez · mayor of South Miami, former state representative (2018–2020)
- Joe Geller · Miami-Dade County Public Schools board member (2024–present), former state representative (2014–2022)
- Juan-Carlos Planas · former state representative from the 114th district (2002–2010) (Democrat, served as a Republican)
- Ken Russell · former Miami city commissioner from the 2nd district (2015–2022) and candidate for this seat in 2022
- Luis Garcia · former state representative from the 107th district (2006–2012)
- Manny Diaz · former mayor of Miami (2001–2009)
- Matti Bower · former mayor of Miami Beach (2007–2013)
- Michael M. Adler · former United States Ambassador to Belgium (2022–2025)
- Mike Abrams · former state representative (1983–1994)
- Ron Klein · FL-22 (2007–2011)
Celebrity4
Celebrity · 4
- Alberto Ibargüen · former president and CEO of the Knight Foundation
- Eduardo J. Padrón · former president of Miami Dade College
- Stephen Zack · former president of the American Bar Association (2010–2011)
- L. Felice Gorordo · former United States Executive Director of the World Bank
DRobin Peguero15 endorsers
Most notable · Glenn Ivey · MD-04 (2023–present)
Elected officials11
Federal 4State 5Local 2
Elected officials · 11
- Glenn Ivey · MD-04 (2023–present)
- Linda Sanchez · CA-38 (2013–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Annie Betancourt · former state representative from the 116th district (1994–2002)
- Ashley Gantt · state representative from the 109th district (2022–present)
- Daisy Baez · former state representative from the 114th district (2016–2017)
- Donna Shalala · former FL-27 (2019–2021)
- Joe Geller · Miami-Dade County Public Schools board member (2024–present), former state representative (2014–2022)
- Juan-Carlos Planas · former state representative from the 114th district (2002–2010) (Democrat, served as a Republican)
- Key Biscayne · former mayor of Key Biscayne and candidate for this district in 2024
- South Miami · dard, former mayor of South Miami (2010–2020)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- CHC BOLD PAC
- Congressional Black Caucus · PAC
- Latino Victory Fund
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Marvin Dunn · historian and educator
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2025-06-25No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.31
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.31
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 38%
Neutral 54%
R 8%
46% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets38%
Neutral54%
R-leaning outlets8%
46% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
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Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Florida 23rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Florida 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Internal poll gives Eliott Rodriguez 26-point lead in CD 27 Democratic Primary
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Debate Drama Erupts in Florida Republican Governor’s Race | NewsRadio WIOD | The Ryan Gorman Show
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2026 Florida governor’s race heats up as candidates make their case
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Robin Peguero qualifies for CD 27, rejecting behind-the-scenes courting to run in nearby district
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-06-25
Endorsements48 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks