DemocratRunning for FL-27 U.S. House · 2026
Elliot Rodriguez
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Elliot Rodriguez, a Democrat, is running for the U.S. House seat in Florida's 27th district. He trails opponent María Elvira Salazar in recent polling, with about 43% to her roughly 46%. Markets currently rate his chances of winning at about 30%, and he has raised approximately $300,000 for his campaign.
43%
Polling average
our aggregate
30%
Win probability
market-implied
$312k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Rodriguez's money comes from.
B+
76/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — pac independence is the standout.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance12
6% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence100
0% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding90
10% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$312k
Raised
$13k
Spent
$299k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
6% small (<$200)94% large indiv.0% PAC
90% in-state · 10% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Race
The contest Rodriguez is running in.
FL · HOUSE · 2026likely r
Rodriguez (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R)
43%−3.5 Salazar46.5%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Rodriguez and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.
Related coverage
nytimes.com · 2026-06-30
Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
nytimes.com · 2026-06-29
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
floridapolitics.com · 2026-06-26
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
nytimes.com · 2026-06-24
Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
Democrat · FL-27 U.S. House
Elliot Rodriguez
Where Rodriguez standsRace →
Rodriguez 43%María Elvira Salazar 46.5%
Market · wins
30¢
43%
Poll avg
30%
Win prob
$312k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Elliot Rodriguez, a Democrat, is running for the U.S. House seat in Florida's 27th district. He trails opponent María Elvira Salazar in recent polling, with about 43% to her roughly 46%. Markets currently rate his chances of winning at about 30%, and he has raised approximately $300,000 for his campaign.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
—
No career timeline
Career history is built from Wikipedia / Wikidata records. No matching public record was found for this candidate.
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Rodriguez's money comes from.
B+
76/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — pac independence is the standout.
1 watch item · small-dollar reliance
Small-dollar reliance12
6% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence100
0% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding90
10% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure100
No significant outside spending in support so far
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$312k
Raised
$13k
Spent
$299k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
6% small (<$200)94% large indiv.0% PAC
90% in-state · 10% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING.
Sources & provenance
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT.