Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs María Elvira Salazar
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 18, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 83% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+7.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.1 (10th pctile) to D+4.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 83% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 98/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
98
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement54
10.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution54 / 100
Measured10.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +12.1
80% CI: R +28.1 → D +4.0 · win prob 17%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +15.2
80% CI R +19.8 → R +13.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.3
80% CI R +7.3 → R +1.3
CV MAE 2.36
consensusMarket-implied
R +4.6
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 31¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 11 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 31% · polls 42%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?” | 31¢ | 70¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through Mar 8, 2026 · latest Blueprint Polling
María Elvira Salazar
VoteHub46.5%
VoteHub
Polling average46.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg46.5%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average46.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
Elliot Rodriguez
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Robin Peguero
VoteHub40.0%
VoteHub
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through Mar 8, 2026): María Elvira Salazar 46.5%, Elliot Rodriguez 43.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Blueprint Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 451 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.4d lean | 40 · 47 |
| Mar 7 | Blueprint Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 451 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.4d lean | 43 · 46 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRMaría Elvira Salazar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-06-25Robin Peguero
Receipts
$821.9K
Disburse
$358.6K
Cash on hand
$463.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Elliot Rodriguez
Receipts
$312.0K
Disburse
$12.5K
Cash on hand
$299.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$71.3K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$71.3K · 100%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 5
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.31
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.31
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 38%
Neutral 54%
R 8%
46% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets38%
Neutral54%
R-leaning outlets8%
46% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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Florida 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Internal poll gives Eliott Rodriguez 26-point lead in CD 27 Democratic Primary
W
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2026 Florida governor’s race heats up as candidates make their case
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Robin Peguero qualifies for CD 27, rejecting behind-the-scenes courting to run in nearby district
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-06-25
Endorsements48 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks