Democratic primary · August 18, 2026
Florida house Democratic primary
Field of 3 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
86
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.6pp).
Forecast CI width72
21.6pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution72 / 100
Measured21.6pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Jared MoskowitzJared Evan Moskowitz is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 23rd congressional district since 2023. A me…
2A Progressive ChallengerChallenger
3Oliver LarkinThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives …
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Moskowitz | Larkin | Challenger | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Center for Strategic Politics | 491 · LV | 45 | 11 | — | +34 |
| Mar 4 | Center for Strategic Politics | 491 · LV | 41 | — | 21 | +20 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetJared Moskowitz · 12
DJared Moskowitz12 endorsers
Most notable · Boca Raton · er, mayor of Boca Raton (2018–present) (running in the 25th district)
Other6
Other · 6
- AIPAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Sierra Club
- Texas's 26th congressional district · andidate for Texas's 26th congressional district in 2022
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- United Auto Workers
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Boca Raton · er, mayor of Boca Raton (2018–present) (running in the 25th district)
- George Moraitis · former state representative from the 93rd district (2010–2018) (running in the 25th district)
DOliver Larkin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DA Progressive Challenger0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks