Races · house · 2026 · Florida

house · open seat

Florida house

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Likely DD +13.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsLast poll 124d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
86% Moskowitz (D)
14% (R)
Win probability
Jared Moskowitz86% (D)
Republican14% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +13.5
80% CIR+2.6 → D+29.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +13.5 · 80% CI R+2.6 → D+29.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.9%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 90¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 86% D

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 88%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.6 (10th pctile) to D+29.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +13.5

80% CI: R +2.6 → D +29.6 · win prob 86%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +7.1

80% CI D +2.7 → D +13.4

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +4.8

80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3

CV MAE 1.97

consensusMarket-implied

D +12.1

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 90¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the FL-23 House seat?”	92¢	9¢	+0¢	—	+2
Kalshi “FL-23 House winner?”	88¢	12¢	+0¢	$0K	-2

Endorsements · 12 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

12Moskowitz · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Jared Moskowitz12 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total12
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DJared Moskowitz12 endorsers

Most notable · Boca Raton · er, mayor of Boca Raton (2018–present) (running in the 25th district)

Other6

Organizations4

Elected officials2

Federal 0State 1Local 1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Jared MoskowitzOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$1.7M

Disburse

$842.8K

Cash on hand

$1.2M

Debts

$40.7K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

The Economist

Safe D

May 5

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 5, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks