Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Florida house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.6 (10th pctile) to R+11.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
29.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured29.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.5
80% CI: R +43.6 → R +11.4 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.1
80% CI R +38.9 → R +28.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the FL-19 House seat?” | 7¢ | 93¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Madison Cawthorn2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMadison Cawthorn2 endorsers
Most notable · Markwayne Mullin · secretary of homeland security (2026–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Markwayne Mullin · secretary of homeland security (2026–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Republicans for National Renewal
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-03Madison Cawthorn
Receipts
$519.5K
Disburse
$286.8K
Cash on hand
$232.8K
Debts
$511.9K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.3M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.3M · 100%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.33 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift +0.33 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 35%
Neutral 59%
R 6%
41% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets35%
Neutral59%
R-leaning outlets6%
41% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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'The race is wide open': Poll shows Jim Schwartzel, Jim Oberweis leading crowded CD 19 field
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Florida Property Tax Amendment: Ballot Language Summary
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Debate Drama Erupts in Florida Republican Governor’s Race | NewsRadio WIOD | The Ryan Gorman Show
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2026 Florida governor’s race heats up as candidates make their case
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks